DeSoto County heat will feel more like late summer than mid-October this week. The National Weather Service in Memphis is forecasting highs in the low 90s from Columbus Day through Thursday, and a couple of those days could come close to, or even beat, daily records for the Memphis area. A strong cold front is expected to end the warm spell Friday, setting up a cool, fall-like weekend.
Isaias has moved off to the northeast. In a forecast discussion issued at 1:25 p.m. Sunday, NWS Memphis said dry air has settled over the Mid-South behind the storm and that “well above-normal temperatures” in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected through at least Thursday.
Southaven forecast: highs of 91 to 93
Here is the official NWS point forecast for Southaven as of Sunday afternoon:
Monday (Columbus Day): Sunny, high near 91. Low around 67.
Tuesday: Sunny, high near 92. Low around 70.
Wednesday: Sunny, high near 93, with a slight chance of afternoon showers and storms.
Thursday: Sunny, high near 91.
Friday: Mostly sunny and cooler, high near 79. Low around 50 Friday night.
Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid to upper 70s, so the coming days could run roughly 15 degrees above average. Forecasters also expect the air to get stickier. Dewpoints are expected to climb into the upper 60s and low 70s as south winds return Monday and Tuesday. The discussion described that as “less pleasant heat” than the dry warmth of the past few days.
How close is DeSoto County heat to the records?
NOAA climate records for the Memphis area, the official record site nearest DeSoto County, show these daily record highs for the week:
Oct. 12: 92 degrees (1975)
Oct. 13: 92 degrees (1963)
Oct. 14: 90 degrees (1963)
Oct. 15: 93 degrees (2015)
Wednesday’s record of 90 is the lowest of the four. If Memphis gets anywhere near the 93 forecast for Southaven that day, it would set a new record. Monday and Tuesday also look close to their record marks. Official records are kept for the Memphis climate site, not for individual DeSoto County cities.
Storm chances and the weekend cooldown
The weather service expects the week to stay mostly dry. Late Wednesday into Thursday morning, moisture returning from the south could meet a front stalled just north of the area. That could bring isolated to scattered storms, mostly over the northern third of the Mid-South. Forecasters said most of the instability is expected to stay north of the region, which limits the severe-weather risk farther south.
The bigger change arrives Friday. A cold front with air of polar origin is expected to sweep through Friday and clear the area by Saturday morning, with little or no rain. Saturday’s highs are forecast in the 60s to low 70s, and overnight lows will likely drop into the 40s across much of the region. The NWS said it “appears increasingly likely” that truly fall-like weather will arrive by next weekend.
Fire danger stays fairly low for now. Humidity could drop to around 30 percent on Monday, but light winds should keep the risk down, according to the forecast discussion. DeSoto County does not currently have a burn ban.
Heat safety tips for the week
Heat in the low 90s is less extreme than July heat, but people have had weeks to get used to cooler weather. Outdoor workers, student athletes, and anyone headed to evening events should take a few precautions:
Drink water often, and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning during the hottest part of the afternoon.
Never leave children or pets in a parked car, even for a few minutes.
Coaches and parents should plan extra water breaks for afternoon practices.
Check on elderly neighbors and anyone without reliable air conditioning.
