The latest DeSoto County Halloween forecast is a little kinder to trick-or-treaters than it looked earlier this week. The National Weather Service in Memphis now expects most of the rain to hold off until Saturday evening and peak overnight into early Sunday, so families in Southaven, Olive Branch, Horn Lake, Hernando and Walls should get a mostly dry start to the evening. A wetter pattern then moves in next week, including on Election Day.
Forecasters updated their Halloween weekend outlook Friday morning, Oct. 30. Earlier in the week they had warned that storms were likely Halloween night. That’s still true for the overnight hours, but the main round of rain now looks a bit later and the daytime rain chance is lower.
DeSoto County Halloween Forecast: Saturday Timeline
As of Friday midday, the NWS point forecast for the Southaven area shows:
Friday afternoon and night: Mostly cloudy and warm, with a high near 80 and a low around 63. It stays dry.
Saturday (Halloween) daytime: Cloudy, with a high near 77. There’s a 30% chance of showers after 5 p.m.
Halloween night: Showers become likely before 3 a.m., then showers and thunderstorms are likely late. The chance of rain is 70%, with a low around 62.
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms, with an 80% chance of rain and a high near 70.
The weather service’s hour-by-hour Halloween graphic for Memphis, the closest listed city to northern DeSoto County, shows rain chances around 20% at 3 p.m., 40% at 6 p.m. and 30% at 9 p.m. Saturday, then 75% by midnight. Holly Springs, to the east, is close behind at 30% at 6 p.m. and 40% at 9 p.m. Forecasters expect temperatures in the low to mid 60s during trick-or-treating, so most kids won’t need a heavy coat.
The bottom line: early trick-or-treating, from sunset (about 6 p.m.) through roughly 8 p.m., has the best odds of staying dry. A passing shower is possible, so it’s smart to pack a rain jacket or umbrella anyway.
How Much Rain Is Expected This Weekend?
In its Friday graphic, the NWS said expected weekend rain amounts across the Mid-South “have increased slightly,” to roughly half an inch to 1 inch. The point forecast for the Southaven area calls for about a quarter to a half inch Saturday night and another tenth to a quarter inch Sunday. The heaviest rain and any embedded thunderstorms are most likely after midnight and into early Sunday morning, and they should taper off by midday.
That rain will be welcome. October is normally the region’s driest month, and this one has been especially dry. On Friday the weather service again warned of elevated fire danger from noon to 7 p.m. across the Mid-South, including North Mississippi, because of low humidity and dry fuels. Residents should avoid open flames, keep vehicles off dry grass and dispose of cigarettes properly until the rain arrives.
Wetter Week Ahead, Including Election Day
Forecasters say this weekend may be the start of a more typical wet November pattern. A slow-moving storm system over the Plains is expected to bring several rounds of rain to the region Tuesday through Thursday. The Memphis office said its blended model guidance now shows widespread totals of 1.25 to 2 inches next week, with locally higher amounts in the Delta south of Memphis.
That matters for the Nov. 3 general election. The NWS outlook shows a 40% to 55% chance of rain in the Memphis and Holly Springs areas Tuesday, rising into Tuesday night. Voters who plan to go to the polls in person may want to bring an umbrella or vote early in the day.
Halloween Night Safety Reminders
Head out early in the evening, before the higher rain chances arrive.
Use flashlights, glow sticks or reflective tape. Cloudy skies and wet roads make costumed kids harder for drivers to see.
If you hear thunder, head indoors and wait for the storm to pass.
Drivers should slow down in neighborhoods and watch for children crossing between parked cars.
