After a cold weekend, DeSoto County weather will warm up this week. The National Weather Service in Memphis expects afternoon highs to climb from around 60 on Monday to the lower 70s by Friday and Saturday. The trouble is the forecast has no rain in it. Forecasters say the dry pattern will likely make the drought across the Mid-South worse.
In its Sunday morning forecast discussion, the weather service said a broad area of high pressure, followed by an upper-level ridge building in from the Southern Plains, will keep the region dry “through at least Saturday.” The Weather Prediction Center’s seven-day outlook shows zero inches of rain for the area.
DeSoto County Weather Forecast: Day by Day
Here is the National Weather Service forecast for the Hernando area:
Sunday night: Mostly clear, low around 35, with areas of frost after 1 a.m.
Monday: Frost early, then sunny with a high near 62. Low near 35 Monday night, with frost possible again.
Tuesday: Frost early, then sunny with a high near 65. Low near 38.
Wednesday: Sunny, high near 67. Low near 43.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, high near 71. Low near 45.
Friday: Sunny, high near 72. Mostly clear Friday night with a low near 46.
Saturday: Sunny, high near 72, with only a slight (20%) chance of showers after midnight Saturday night.
The weather service’s “Warming Trend Begins” graphic shows a similar pattern for nearby cities. Memphis is forecast to rise from 59 on Monday to 71 on Friday and Saturday, and Holly Springs from 60 to 72. Morning lows climb from the 30s early in the week into the 40s by the weekend.
Frost Early in the Week
Gardeners should protect tender plants a couple more nights. Forecasters expect early-morning frost each day through midweek, mainly east of the Mississippi River. Model guidance shows a better than 50% chance of below-freezing temperatures Monday morning, mostly east of I-55. Low-lying spots may also see patchy fog overnight, though widespread fog is not expected because the air is so dry.
Drought and Fire Danger Rising
The bigger story is the lack of rain. In Sunday’s discussion, the weather service noted that the latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought west of the Mississippi River and in parts of north Mississippi. Most of the rest of the Mid-South is in Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) drought. Forecasters say continued drying will likely worsen conditions over the next seven days.
Fire-weather conditions are also a concern. The forecast calls for:
Minimum relative humidity around 30 to 35 percent through Tuesday, rising near 40 percent late in the week
Light winds, generally under 10 mph
No wetting rain through at least the end of the workweek
10-hour fuel moisture falling to around 10 percent by midweek, which could bring marginally elevated fire weather conditions
As of Sunday evening, DeSoto County was not on the Mississippi Forestry Commission’s list of counties under an outdoor burn ban. Neighboring Marshall County’s ban runs through Nov. 20. Even without a ban, officials urge residents to be very careful with any outdoor burning. Dry leaves and brush can ignite easily, and embers can travel a long way. Never leave a fire unattended, and call 911 to report any fire that gets out of control.
Friday Night Football and Next Week
Fans heading to Lake Cormorant’s second-round playoff game against South Panola on Friday night should have great football weather: mostly clear skies with temperatures falling from the low 70s into the 50s and 40s overnight.
Looking further ahead, forecasters see “a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel” early next week. Some long-range models show a cold front moving through the area around the start of Thanksgiving week, but it is too soon to say how much rain it might bring.
